70% Odds of S&P 500 Inclusion After Q3 Earnings
Despite a decline in inventory worth and a slowdown in Bitcoin purchases, Strategy, the world’s largest company Bitcoin holder, might have a 70% likelihood of being added to the S&P 500 index earlier than the top of the yr, in response to crypto market intelligence firm 10X Research.
Strategy is ready to launch its third-quarter 2025 earnings on Thursday, that are anticipated to incorporate an estimated $3.8 billion acquire from fair-value Bitcoin (BTC) accounting.
A worthwhile quarter would imply a 60%–70% likelihood that the inventory could be included within the S&P 500 efficient Dec. 19, in response to a Wednesday report from 10X Research.
“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” the report mentioned. “The October 30 earnings release, which could reignite speculation around the December 5 S&P 500 inclusion decision — a scenario we assign a roughly 70% probability.”
While investor sentiment across the inventory stays “washed out,” the earnings report presents an “obvious catalyst” for Strategy, 10X mentioned.
Bitcoin slowdown and valuation pressure
The prediction comes regardless of broader issues over the sustainability of digital asset treasuries (DATs), as a number of firms have seen their market internet asset worth (mNAV) fall under key thresholds this yr.
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The mNAV ratio compares an organization’s enterprise worth to the worth of its crypto holdings. An mNAV above 1 permits an organization to lift funds by issuing new shares to build up digital belongings. Values under 1 make it a lot tougher to increase capital and holdings.
Several DATs noticed their mNAVs slip under this key degree, successfully shutting down their potential to lift funds for additional purchases. The companies included Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI) and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV).
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Crypto market liquidity will return at “this point” of the cycle
Strategy has slowed its Bitcoin purchases over the previous month. The firm solely acquired 778 Bitcoin throughout October, one of its smallest month-to-month hauls, down 78% from the three,526 BTC it purchased in September.
Despite the slowing Bitcoin acquisitions and a big current market correction, this can be “precisely the point” of the crypto market cycle when “liquidity returns and outsized moves take shape,” in response to 10X Research.
“With the NAV premium largely unwound, which caused $18 billion in losses for investors and volatility beginning to pick up again, the risk-reward dynamic is no longer about bracing for downside — it’s about preparing for what comes next.”
Despite the favorable outlook, Strategy obtained a “B-” credit standing from S&P Global Ratings, putting it within the speculative, non-investment grade territory typically related to “junk bonds,” regardless of having a constructive outlook on its inventory worth.
This marks the primary time a Bitcoin‑treasury-focused firm has obtained an S&P Global evaluation, establishing a brand new potential benchmark for conventional finance members evaluating crypto companies.
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